The sudden collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, ending over five decades of authoritarian rule, has thrust Turkey into a unique geopolitical position. A NATO member and a close ally of the United States, Turkey is now poised to reshape the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle Eastern energy and security landscape. This development aligns with its established defense partnerships, including those with Qatar—a major non-NATO ally of the United States—and other regional powers.

Reports of Foreign Involvement and Casualties in Assad’s Fall

Recent reports suggest that both Ukrainian intelligence and the United States provided critical assets to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), enabling operations that contributed to the regime's collapse. The operation highlights the strategic depth of international alliances in reshaping Syria’s political future.

However, the conflict’s human toll cannot be overlooked. A 66-year-old Armenian man was among the casualties, alongside reports of multiple other fatalities. These losses underline the fragile nature of the region and the high stakes involved in its reconstruction.

Strategic Allies in a Shifting Order

Turkey’s alignment with NATO and the United States grants it significant geopolitical leverage. Hosting millions of Syrian refugees and supporting anti-Assad forces, Turkey has emerged as a decisive actor in Syria’s reconstruction. The country’s defense and economic alliances, particularly with Qatar, further enhance its capacity to influence the region’s future. Similar to its partnerships in Azerbaijan and Libya, Ankara could establish defense agreements with a post-Assad Syrian government, bolstering its strategic depth.

Qatar’s role, as a major non-NATO ally, complements Turkey’s ambitions. Both nations have supported Syrian opposition groups and share interests in the energy sector, particularly in leveraging the Eastern Mediterranean's resources. Their cooperation could strengthen regional stability while aligning with broader U.S. objectives.

Energy Aspirations and Geopolitical Stakes

Turkey’s ambitions to become the Eastern Mediterranean’s energy hub are intertwined with its partnerships. The potential revival of a pipeline connecting Qatar’s gas fields to Turkey, via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, underscores the importance of these alliances. This project, previously blocked by the Assad regime under Russian influence, could provide a cost-effective alternative to current LNG routes.

Moreover, Turkey’s existing energy infrastructure, including its pipelines and LNG terminals, positions it as a natural transit hub. A stable Syria could unlock new energy corridors, offering opportunities for regional players like Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon to integrate into a more efficient energy network centered around Turkey.

Challenges and Opportunities in Clean Energy

While Turkey’s immediate focus may be on natural gas, its renewable energy advancements offer a sustainable alternative. With nearly half of its electricity generated from wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, Turkey is well-equipped to lead Syria’s energy reconstruction efforts. Collaboration on renewable energy projects could align with the priorities of allies like Qatar, which is also investing in sustainable energy solutions.

Turkey’s integration into a broader Eastern Mediterranean power grid, connecting with interconnectors from Egypt, Greece, and Israel, could foster stability through shared energy systems. This alignment could reduce geopolitical tensions, reinforce NATO’s presence in the region, and offer an alternative to Russian energy dominance.

Navigating a Delicate Balancing Act

Turkey’s dual role as a NATO ally and a regional power demands careful navigation. Its decisions in the coming months—whether prioritizing traditional fossil fuel routes or pivoting toward renewables—will shape not only its energy strategy but also its standing among allies. The convergence of interests between Turkey, the United States, and Qatar presents an opportunity to advance mutual goals of stability, energy security, and economic development in the post-Assad Middle East.

For Ankara, the post-Assad reality is more than a chance to rebuild Syria—it is a moment to redefine its regional influence, balancing strategic alliances with bold energy leadership. Yet, the casualties reported during the operations that toppled Assad serve as a sobering reminder of the cost of these transformations and the importance of placing humanitarian considerations at the forefront of future strategies.

Qatar-Syria-Türkiye gas pipeline project: Is it possible after Assad's fall? - Türkiye Today